Obama'land

California remained a Democratic bastion on Novemeber 4th, with Obama winning every single demographic except 65-year-old+ whites, Evangelicals, conservatives, those who own guns, those who voted Bush in 2004, those who approve of the war in Iraq, and those who want to drill for off-shore oil. Those in the Inland/Valley region were most likely to vote McCain.

Talk about playing to stereotypes.

Prop. 8 Passed

Did Barack's appeal to AA's help defeat Prop. 8?

And the last prediction is...

No surprise, but the high turnout in California is falling hard for Obama. Southern California seems to trend more conservatively, with all three of the up-for-grabs House seats safe in Republican territory. The state's Republican governor has been on the campaign trail with McCain recently, but Swarzenegger is primarily being used for his moderate views and appeal to independent voters. The only really heated race is in California's 4th, where the Republican and Democratic challengers are within about a point of one another according to pollster.com's average. It does look like McClintock (R) will pull it out based on polling trends, but it will be close.

Prop. 8 passions are high heading in to election day

Massive turnout may lead to delayed results

In California registered voters have risen to 17.3 million, which is larger that any state population other than Texas, New York and Florida. Coupled with the huge increase in mail-in ballot which cannot be counted until after all poll ballots are counted, the situation could turn in to a long night for poll officials left to count the ballots. Some counties are expecting as much as an 80 percent turnout, along with lines that continue far past the intended closing time of 8 p.m.

What's making this year so exciting? The guarantee that either the first black or the first woman will be in office in the next couple of months is certainly part of it, but another reason is that the propositions on the ballot this cycle are many and heated. Proposition 8, the proposition to over-turn the states' Supreme court ruling in favor of gay marriage, is the most expensive campaign in American other than the presidential campaigns themselves.

Is Obama a girly-man?

Schwarzenegger attacks Obama's skinny legs, experience, tax policies.

Holloween or election day?

In Redonda Beach a mother of two young children included a hanging effigy of Senator Barack Obama in her elaborate Halloween lawn set up. In part the set-up was in response to an effigy of Governor Sarah Palin that's been hanging from a noose at a home in West Hollywood for weeks. The Obama display was taken down after representatives from the McCain campaign visited the woman's house and asked that the display be taken down.

Some registered voters are complaining that they never received their voting materials, including absentee ballots. Despite the complaints, the registrar says that it's nothing to worry about, and that some gliches are expected when more than a million and a half individuals.

These words might be reassuring to some, but it does raise doubt amongst other, national registration and voting scandals.

LA County embraces early voting

Nearly 400,000 voters in LA county have already sent in their absentee ballots, and almost 750,000 more have requested them but have yet to turn them in. tens of thousands more were at the registrars office this week registering to vote, checking registration and requesting absentee ballot.

Officials are excited about the interest in this year's election, but are also worried about the potential for long lines on election day. They are hoping that the dramatic increase in absentee ballots will cut down on election day polling lines.

Popular vote in CA's future?

A recent poll found that Californians support a popular vote in 2012's presidential election. Citizens hope that changing the voting system in California would bring more national attention to the state from both candidates. The state's various districts are surprisingly very divided despite the state's reputation for being a Democratic strong-hold, and could give hope to Republicans in future elections.

10 days to go

Obama's lovin' California and its 55 electoral votes--almost a fifth of what he will need to win the presidency. However the state elections aren't as blue as the state appears on the national level. In fact, Republicans are making good gains in the state despite the economic trouble of the national and state leadership, namely President Bush and Governor Swartzenegger, and even have some very conservative propositions on the ballot.

Endorsement

The LA Times has endorsed presidential candidate Barack Obama.It is the first time that the newspaper has not endorsed a candidate since 1972 when it back President Richard Nixon.

Visit www.latimes.com/obama-president for the paper's editorial on the endorsement.

Marriage rush in San Fransisco

Early voting in California

Big gains for California Dems

This year's presidential campaign might not have significantly impacted California's role in the upcoming election, but it the high turnout inspired by the candidates could play big in California's state-wide election. For the last few election cycles Democrats have not been able to secure enough seats to assure that their proposals to be passed. Instead they rely on 8 Republicans to cross the isle, which requires compromise. This year's drastic increase in Democratic turnout could turn those 8 seats blue, giving Democrats nearly free reign over the state's budget and other issues.

Flatline...decided or complacent voters?

More than presidential

Californians won't just be deciding presidential politics this November when they hit the polls. Most have heard about the contorversial proposition 8 which will ask Californians to vote on gay marriage, but another important proposition awaits those concerned over the traffic and polution crisis in the state. Proposition 1A will ask voters to decide on a $10 billion down payment on an high speed rail system intended to strech across the entire state, similar to that in countries like Taiwan. The $10 billion is just the beginning, and will certainly be hard to swollow after the state informed the federal government a couple week ago that it might need major financial assistance.

Who cares about California?

A great deal is made over presidential elections being about the American people and who they decide to be their leader for the next for years. But let's get serious, this election isn't about Americans, it's about Ohioans, North Carolinians, Missiourians and the rest of the voters from states that the politicians consider ocntestable. Republicans might come to the state of California but it's not for votes. If anything it's for money and to stir up the base, not to reach thos complacent independents and get them involved with the American political process.

More can be read about this on the UC Irvine website.

Last chance!

Today is the last day to register in the great state of California! In most elections this might not mean much, but this election has upwards of 20 to 30 thousands new registrants every day.The polls could be a mess in a couple of weeks if all of these new registrants decend on the polls all at once, but many have been taking advantage of main-in ballots.

Young Californian voters courted

Big ballots!

Sacramento County voters might find it hard to mail in their ballots on a budget this year. In fact,voters must purchase 17 extra cents in postage to make their voice heard. Hopefully everyone will catch on before election day.

No vote doesn't mean no voice

Non-citizen Hispanics might seem like a wasted force in presidential politics, but some researchers are suggesting that their role might be more substantial than originally assumed. Despite lacking the right to vote, the Hispanic community is very closely knit, and it isn't uncommon for families or social circles to be a close mix of citizens and non-citizens; that is, voters and non-voters. Just because this large demographic lacks suffrage rights doesn't mean they can't influence their friends and family, ultimately stirring a base that would otherwise go unarroused. This could potentially put issues like immigration to the forefront where it might otherwise take a back seat to other issues.

Republican politics getting dirty in CA

Certain county Republican affiliated groups in California are taking negative campaigning to a whole new level according to the San Fransisco Chronicle. The Sacramento County Republican party was asked by the California Republican Party to remove a picture of Barack Obama next to a picture of Osama bin Laden in a turban with the caption "the only difference between Obama and Osama is a little B.S." The site also proclaimed headlines like "water board Obama."


The disgusting rhetoric (despite partisan affiliation) was mirrored by another Republican group, the San Bernardino County Republican women's group, who publish a "racially insensitive" picture of Obama in its private publication.

Party officials have condemned the publications, but certainly not without consequence. Such publicity may not hurt McCain any more than he already is in California, but state races in which Republicans hope to gain some influence could easily be negatively effected.

Taking a back seat

Presidential politics are finding it hard to compete with proposition 8 in California which will give voters the opportunity to rescind the right to gay marriage that the state courts allowed last year. The Asian vote threatens to take on the support of the proposition that blacks expect to put forward in November, but their presidential politics are more unsure. 1 in 3 Asian voters live in California, and 30 percent of those voters are undecided according to the San Fransisco Chronicle.

While this group may not be a make or break for either campaign, the state's politics could be easily influenced and have a major impact on the future of Californian politics.

The push in California for mail-in ballots has a bigger impact than just getting people to vote and vote early, it also helps stimulate voting on election day. With about one third of California citizens voting by mail this year, voting organizers are now able to allocate voting booth resources more effectively. When one third of a small community votes by mail, resources that would otherwise be required in that community on election day can instead be moved into more populated areas. This helps cut down on lines and congestion in more urban areas, hopefully inspiring time-crunched individuals to vote when they otherwise might not.

This will especially be important with the huge increases in voter registration this election cycle, which could otherwise mean a chaotic situation at the polls in November.

Blacks instrumental in more than presidential politics

The Obama campaign has made headlines recently for its extensive voter turnout drives, particularly because of turnout among black and other minority groups. For California state politics those turnout levels could effect more than where the states electoral votes end up. On the California ballot again this year is proposition 8 which supports a ban against same-sex marriages. While democratic turnout would normally benefit proposition 8, the democratic demographic isn't the same as it has been in previous elections, with more black that even turning out to vote. Blacks are typically on more conservative issues like gay marriage and could help defeat the proposition this year.

Groups against same-sex marriages propose a 'thank-you' to Barack Obama for the outcome, spurring debate.

Palin in SoCal

Sarah Palin made her first visit to California since her VP nomination a month ago. Palin has been accredited for rallying California's Republican base that could help in state-wide elections, if not in the presidential race. Her appearance marks a change in tone for the McCain campaign as she criticized Obama's relationship with Bill Ayers. A more critical message is expected from the campaign as Obama rises in battleground state polls.

Both supporters and protesters were present at Palin's rally, and some of there comments are featured in this YouTube video

Independent media

A group of independent conservatives called Vets for Freedom has started an add campaign against Barack Obama in California. The $2.2 million campaign focuses on Obama's foreign policy experience and objectives. Other independent groups are launching similar attacks against all the candidates in various battleground states, reports USA Today.

Independent advertising played a major role in the 2004 election, and could in this one as well, but the Vets for Freedom could have probably focused their funds a little more strategically instead of focusing on a Democratic bastion like California.

Shaking the base

John Wildermuth of the San Fransisco Chronicle gave interesting insight into the implications of a measure that would essentially circumvent the traditional ways of the electoral college. The measure, vetoed by Governor Schwarzenegger, would have allowed California to award its electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote, instead of the winner of California's popular vote. The measure was favored by those of National popular vote organizations because it would allow them to achieve their goal without rewriting the Constitution, which is required if the country decides to move away from the Electoral College.

The measure would have effectively bypassed the Electoral college system, and would have changed the course of the 2000 election. With such a tight race this year the effects of such legislation could have been historic.

Microcosm

In Lake County, CA registration is on its way up as the registrars office gears up to handle the influx. Over the past few years more and more voters are registering to vote absentee, an interesting trend. Most of these absentee voters are not abroad or in the Military.

While Lake County is just a microcosm of the greater state, partisan registration trends seem to be on par with California as a whole. The influence of absentee ballots might be something to look out for in the future.

Read more about Lake County

Getting political

The University of California is responding to the lack of up-front and quality news despite 24-hour news channels and websites. UCTV (University of California Television) is gathering a variety of resources including clips, opinions, interviews, and general information on the issues facing voter this election, and putting it all on an a University accessible channel. The programming is also available to the greater public online at

Worldwide on the Internet at www.uctv.tv: Live webcast, "video-on-demand" archives, audio and video podcasts. Also available on iTunesU and YouTube ( http://www.youtube.com/uctv)

Click here for more information.

Still fighting over primary troubles

Governor Schwarzenegger vetoed a bill that would have required poll workers to notify
"decline-to-say" voters of their right to a ballot for any primary that allows "decline-to-state" voters to participate. Apparently this year's California primary rules were unclear to some independents and poll workers, and supporters hoped the bill would help clear the situation in the future.

The bill would have primarily effected Democratic primaries since Republicans do not allow anyone not a registered Republican to vote.

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Palin in California

While Palin isn't helping McCain make up ground in California, she may be helping Republicans running for state-wide positions. Palin has doubled satisfaction with the McCain ticket among the GOP base, and inspired conservative women to become active in politics. A recent LA Times report found that Republican are turning out to volunteer like the CA's GOP party hasn't seen since the 2003 recall, and it's Palin's inspiration that's driving the excitement.
In a state like California Republicans need to take it where they can get it, which for now doesn't mean electoral votes, but could mean some state offices that would otherwise be impossible.

Raising the stakes

The next president will have immediate influence in California where there will be two vacancies in the 9th US circuit Court of Appeals, the country's largest appeals court.
A conservative judge in a clearly liberal area of the country could be a little scary for voters, possibly increasing Obama's support in California (if that's possible at this point.)

Voter registration up in CA

There are currently more than 500,000 more registered voters in California than there were at this time of election in 2004. The proportion of Democrats and "decline-to-say" voters has increased, while declared Republicans has decreased.

It's a good thing Karl Rove isn't running the McCain campaign, or Republicans would be disappointed with CA.

CA 50 day

It should not have been any surprise to Republicans that California is not a swing state, and barring some tragic and terrible event, will not even come close to blushing purple this elections. Karl Rove could not ignore the state's 55 electoral votes was impossible to just ignore, but McCain has the right idea to pump money into other states. In fact, the state hasn't gone anywhere near the red side since 1992, and last election put Bush 10 points behind Kerry in the final vote. Currently, most polls aren't even showing McCain reaching 40 percent in the state. Pollster.com has Obama at 52.5 to McCain's 37.7.
There are quite a few issues working against the Republican ticket this time around. Despite having a Republican governor, the state doesn't represent that traditional conservative base by any stretch of the imagination. Among other issues, McCain's call for offshore drilling is infuriating Californians who oppose the Republican proposal. Governor Schwarzenegger is even opposed to the drilling on California's coast. Gay marriage is another hot topic, but the push for a measure to be included on the ballot challenging the California court's ruling this spring is losing steam. McCain hasn't brought the issue to the forefront, instead focusing on national security and the international scene. Unlike the Bush campaign that sought after California, McCain's strategy of not pushing divisive topics important to Californians is probably important in order to rally bases that might now lie neutral.
Swarzennegger is sticking another thorn in the side of the conservataive ticket due to the economic crisis that he announced the week of the RNC. Not surprisingly, the GOP took advatage of the chaos caused by Gustav and cancelled Schwarzenegger's speech on the opening night of the convention. He was not rescheduled.
California would be fine to just let be because there it is a strong Obama state, except for its proximity to important states that McCain is still in the running for, including Nevada and New Mexico. McCain shouldn't focus his money or efforts in the state, but working to not aggravate a vocal partisan base could play strongly to his advantage.

Standing her ground

Sarah Palin is standing up to Gov. Schwarzenegger on tax issues that she says will effect the citizens of both Alaska and California. Schwarzenegger is considering port fees to cut down on emissions at two of California's port known for being the highest polluters. Palin is asking him to veto those fees, according to the Los Angeles Times.

Perhaps she would have made the same request three weeks ago when she was "just a hockey mom" and governor of Alaska. However, now all eyes on her and the proposal to Schwarzenegger have people asking about her motive. Is she giving advice to the republican governor who has held his position longer than she? Who is she trying to appeal to, who will really be affected by these fees?

But maybe it's not about the fees at all, but another attempt by the McCain/Palin ticket to separate themselves from yet another failing republican administration. The week of the RNC Schwarzenegger plead for Californians to "bear with him" as he raised taxes in order to begin paying off the massive deficit the state budget found itself in. There might not be any chance at winning California this time around, but states close by like Nevada definitely are up for grabs and certainly are close enough to the drama to know what's going on.

Singing the Blues

It's not looking good for Republicans in California as the once well-liked Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) seems to be running the state's economy into the ground, and taking his party with it.
Hurricane Gustav turned out to be a blessing for the Republicans in many ways: it excused Bush and Cheney without any major drama, allowing McCain to separate himself from the unpopular administration, but it also gave the the party the excuse to quietly remove Schwarzenegger from the opening night line up. His Monday night speech would have coincided with his plea to Californians to "stick with him" as he is forced to raise the states taxes to fix a drastically growing state debt.

California labour union bids to oust Arnold Schwarzenegger in recall

A California labour union is attempting to oust Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger from office using the same mechanism by which the former Hollywood action hero assumed power in 2003.


By Catherine Elsworth in Los Angeles
Last Updated: 4:52PM BST 09 Sep 2008

The union representing California's prison guards plans to launch a bid to recall the Republican governor, citing the state's massive deficit and record-setting budget stalemate.

Mr Schwarzenegger took office after the first successful recall of a California governor, Democratic incumbent Gray Davis.

The California Correctional Peace Officers Association said it was taking the action in part because Mr Schwarzenegger included its members in a plan to slash the pay of tens of thousands of state employees amid the state's ongoing budget crisis.

Mike Jimenez, president of the 30,000-member well-funded, influential union, also cited the fact its members have gone two years without a new contract and Mr Schwarzenegger's failure to end this year's budget impasse as reasons for the move.

State lawmakers remain at odds over how to close a $15.2 billion (£8.6 billion) deficit more than two months after the deadline for setting the state's annual spending plan passed.

Mr Jimenez described the governor, who has seen his popularity ratings plummet over recent months, as a failure since he took office.

"This governor, he stands for nothing," Mr Jimenez said.

"He's a dismal failure in every sense of the word. This failure on this budget puts him over the top."

The union plans to file a 'notice of intent' to recall the governor on Tuesday. To force a recall election, a special election permitted under California law, the union will have to gather more than one million signatures to get the matter on a state-wide ballot.

If successful, the measure would probably be voted on next year rather than during the November presidential election.

Mr Schwarzenegger, who must step down after his term ends in 2010, branded the recall attempt "intimidation tactics" to win higher wages for the union the state could not afford. He vowed not to give in.

"Their intimidation tactics will not make me change my mind whatsoever because I happen to not represent the CCPOA. I represent the people of California," he said.

California County’s Resolve Against Drilling Fades

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By FELICITY BARRINGER
Published: August 26, 2008

Santa Barbara County became a symbol of the national environmental movement’s passionate opposition to offshore oil drilling when an oil spill devastated its coastline in 1969. On Tuesday, it became a symbol of the changing national mood as its board of supervisors debated whether to welcome new wells along California’s shores.

The supervisors voted 3 to 2 on Tuesday to end the county’s opposition to offshore drilling, although the vote will have no practical impact on state or federal policies.

But the speed with which opinions have changed in Santa Barbara County as gasoline prices have climbed has been astonishing. The vote there reinforces, at the local level, a shift evident in national polls and in the delicate willingness of Democratic leaders like Senator Barack Obama, the presumptive presidential nominee, and the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi of California, to open the door to limited coastal drilling.

Three weeks ago, the Public Policy Institute of California released a poll showing that 51 percent of Californians now approve of offshore drilling, a 10-point increase in a single year. “I don’t think any of us expected to see the day when there’d be more than 50 percent support for oil drilling,” said Mark Baldassare, the institute’s research director.

Despite the liberal, environmentally conscious aura that has surrounded the wealthy coastal communities of Santa Barbara and Montecito, the county as a whole, which also includes the fast-growing, less-wealthy inland communities of Santa Ynez and Santa Maria, has been less easily pigeonholed politically.

“It’s a bipolar situation,” said Antonio Rossman, an environmental lawyer in San Francisco. “You’ve got some of the strongest environmentalists in the country, yet this is where Ronald Reagan had his ranch,” Mr. Rossman said, adding, “The Santa Barbara County Board of Supervisors has always split as close as anyone can on issues of preservation versus development.”

The swing vote on the five-member board, Supervisor Brooks Firestone, said in a telephone interview on Tuesday that he was ending his opposition because offshore drilling was no longer a significant threat to the coastal environment.

McCain's appeal to the People of CA

On Thursday, the California Supreme Court did precisely what much of the American public doesn’t want judges doing: it made social policy from the bench. With a 4-to-3 majority, the judges chose not to defer to a ballot initiative approved by 61 percent of California voters eight years ago, which defined marriage as between a man and a woman. In 2003, the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court redefined marriage in that state, helping to highlight the issues of same-sex marriage and judicial activism for the 2004 presidential campaign. Now the California court has conveniently stepped up to the plate.

Obama’s campaign issued a statement that its candidate “respects the decision of the California Supreme Court.” The McCain campaign, by contrast, said it recognized “the right of the people of California to recognize marriage as a unique institution ... John McCain doesn’t believe judges should be making these decisions.” Since the next president will almost certainly have one Supreme Court appointment, and could have two or three, this difference on judicial philosophy could well matter to voters — and in a way that should help McCain.

Furthermore, the action of the California court will remind voters of the Defense of Marriage Act, which says a state is not required to recognize same-sex marriages performed in other states and which was passed overwhelmingly by Congress and signed by Bill Clinton in 1996. McCain voted for and supports it. Obama opposes it.

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Reps fall off dramatically in CA as of August